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Weather|NOAA Predicts ‘Above Average’ Hurricane Season
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/weather/noaa-forecast-hurricane-season.html
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November.
By Judson Jones
Judson Jones is a meteorologist and reporter for The Times.
May 22, 2025Updated 12:15 p.m. ET
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its forecast for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, saying it expected to see between 13 to 19 named storms this year. That would make this an above-average season, and most likely not as active as 2024 ended up being. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Ken Graham, the director of NOAA’s National Weather Service said at a news conference on Thursday morning that the agency’s forecasters believed six to 10 of the named storms could become hurricanes, meaning they would include winds of at least 74 miles per hour. Those could include three to five major hurricanes — Category 3 or higher — with winds of at least 111 m.p.h.
According to NOAA, there is a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season, with a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.
Even so, some experts are concerned that the current setup may resemble something closer to the 2017 season, the year of hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. That year, the season reached the upper limit of its forecast, ending up with 17 named storms from a forecast of 11 to 17. More of those storms became major hurricanes than forecasters had originally expected.
The NOAA forecast on Thursday joins more than a dozen other recent projections from experts at universities, private companies and other government agencies who have predicted a more tempered hurricane season than last year’s, but still one that is average to slightly above average.
